season is expected to end in a 4-1 victory for Leipzig. After breaking their three-match winning streak by defeating their arch-rival Dortmund to advance to the semi-finals of the German Cup, Leipzig defeated Hertha Berlin on the opponent's home turf to maintain their position in the top 4.
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Although their overall performance this season has been somewhat worse than last season, Leipzig still has hope of earning a Champions League spot and winning a title. However, the challenge for coach Marco Rose's team remains significant as they face direct competitors (Leverkusen, Freiburg, Bayern Munich) in the remaining matches of the season.
Therefore, Leipzig cannot afford to stumble against weaker teams like Augsburg, as they did in the first leg of the season. In that match, Leipzig even fell behind 0-3 and had to rely on Augsburg's red card to secure a draw (3-3). However, at home in the Red Bull Arena, Leipzig has never lost to Augsburg since their first Bundesliga appearance (winning 5 out of 6 matches and scoring at least 2 goals in each victory).
During this season, Die Roten Bullen have only dropped points four times (losing twice) in the Bundesliga, and only once (drawing with Cologne in their first home game) against teams ranked in the bottom half of the table (9th or lower). At this point, Augsburg's form is also not great, with only two draws and two losses in their last four matches. Especially away from home, Enrico Maassen's team has only earned two points from their last nine outings (losing four times by a single goal).
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However, Augsburg is not currently at risk of relegation as they are still in a safe position in the table. Currently, Leipzig is a 1 3/4 goal favorite, which is a fair handicap given the current form of both teams. It should be noted that Augsburg has only been given a similar handicap twice away from home this season against Bayern and Dortmund, two teams who have been in better form than Leipzig. Meanwhile, Leipzig has won all three of their home games this season in the Bundesliga when given a handicap of 1 1/2 or higher (winning two of them by a margin of two goals). Therefore, Leipzig is the favored choice in this match.
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In terms of the total goals, 4 out of the last 5 meetings between these two teams have resulted in at least three goals. This trend has also appeared in the last 5 home matches of Leipzig and 9 out of 10 away matches of Augsburg (all in the Bundesliga). While the over/under for this match is currently at 3 1/4 goals (meaning that there have to be four goals for the bet to win), it might be worth waiting until the over/under is reduced to 3 before betting on the over.